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Do you know how your forecast is calculated?

WaterGuyWaterGuy Posts: 414Member, Moderator
edited November 2017 in Understanding Your Results

Your forecast for each OhmHour is very important--in fact, it's essential if you want to participate in OhmHours and earn money! How confident are you that you understand how your forecast for each OhmHour is calculated?

Do you know how your forecast is calculated? 33 votes

I'm 100% confident I could match the OC calculations if I had the same data to work with.
30% 10 votes
I have a good idea of what goes into the forecast calculation, but the exact details are a little fuzzy.
18% 6 votes
I have a vague idea, but am not really sure.
51% 17 votes
Don't know, don't care.
0% 0 votes

Comments

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    I spend a couple of minutes computing my forecasts every day and I can tell you that my numbers exactly match what OC provides on the dashboard. They have not made a mistake this year.

    I had an OhmHour last night from 8-9 PM and this is what my dashboard currently looks like:

    When my dashboard updates this is what it will say
    Forecasted Use = 3.883 kWh
    Your Use = 0.685 kWh

    I will come back and post a screenshot.

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    Unfortunately my points haven't posted yet but the good news is I have another #OhmHour tomorrow. I have calculated my forecast already for this and it will be 9.0425. Of course I won't know the usage till Tuesday, assuming no SDG&E delays.

  • snetphiliesnetphilie ConcordPosts: 139Member, Moderator

    I used to track every calculation like a hawk. These days, I simply trust OC to do the math right because I can't imagine losing more than 2 cents, and I don't mind offering up my 2 cents all the time.... :D :D :D Yeah, yeah, I know... horrible dad joke!

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    @UkiwiS said:
    I spend a couple of minutes computing my forecasts every day and I can tell you that my numbers exactly match what OC provides on the dashboard. They have not made a mistake this year.

    I had an OhmHour last night from 8-9 PM and this is what my dashboard currently looks like:

    When my dashboard updates this is what it will say
    Forecasted Use = 3.883 kWh
    Your Use = 0.685 kWh

    I will come back and post a screenshot.

    Here you go...BOOM!

  • IanEIanE Posts: 86Member

    i agree the math is easy enough to follow... it's just that i don't bother...

  • snetphiliesnetphilie ConcordPosts: 139Member, Moderator

    @UkiwiS said:

    @UkiwiS said:
    . . .
    When my dashboard updates this is what it will say
    Forecasted Use = 3.883 kWh
    Your Use = 0.685 kWh

    I will come back and post a screenshot.

    Here you go...BOOM!

    Nicely Done

  • The Little Ohmer TwinsThe Little Ohmer Twins Union CityPosts: 1,014Moderator
    @UkiwiS more like mic drop =)
  • Chris LapazChris Lapaz Posts: 37Member

    i know exactly how to calculate it myself but i don't have time to do so before every OH. my issue, which i have brought up before, the estimated forecast from the email received to announce the OH has been way off. had an OH last night and the email had an estimated use of 0.53 kWh. results came in today and my actual usage was 0.51 kWh but the forecasted use dropped to 0.44 kWh. i understand that SCE may not have had the data available to get an exact number for the estimated forecast but just a bit irked that i would've been under had the estimated forecast been where it's at or just a bit lower.

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator
    edited November 2017

    @Chris Lapaz

    The difference between the emailed forecast and your actual was only 0.09. So the difference between the number that dropped off in the calc and the one missing from the calc is 0.09 X 10 = .9 kWh

    It's OC that is providing the estimates, not SCE, BUT it IS based on YOUR usage data from SCE, which may or may not be complete or accurate. I cannot think of a solution to this problem other than not providing a forecast at all. The formula is known and OC is doing the best they can with the data that's available. Would it better if there was no forecast provided at all? Would that irk you less?

    If you know more than a day in advance when your OhmHour is going to be try and use a LOT of energy in that hour the day before so at least you'll "work" your actual forecast up a bit and earn more for it.That's the last hour that goes into the forecast and the one from 10 days ago is going to get dropped. Run the AC, run the dishwasher, do the laundry, or do all of those things.

  • Chris LapazChris Lapaz Posts: 37Member

    thanks for the tip @UkiwiS, never thought about doing that but will try it for the next OH.

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 1,049Administrator

    @snetphilie said:

    @UkiwiS said:

    @UkiwiS said:
    . . .
    When my dashboard updates this is what it will say
    Forecasted Use = 3.883 kWh
    Your Use = 0.685 kWh

    I will come back and post a screenshot.

    Here you go...BOOM!

    Nicely Done

    AMAZING

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 1,049Administrator

    @UkiwiS said:
    @Chris Lapaz

    The difference between the emailed forecast and your actual was only 0.09. So the difference between the number that dropped off in the calc and the one missing from the calc is 0.09 X 10 = .9 kWh

    It's OC that is providing the estimates, not SCE, BUT it IS based on YOUR usage data from SCE, which may or may not be complete or accurate. I cannot think of a solution to this problem other than not providing a forecast at all. The formula is known and OC is doing the best they can with the data that's available. Would it better if there was no forecast provided at all? Would that irk you less?

    If you know more than a day in advance when your OhmHour is going to be try and use a LOT of energy in that hour the day before so at least you'll "work" your actual forecast up a bit and earn more for it.That's the last hour that goes into the forecast and the one from 10 days ago is going to get dropped. Run the AC, run the dishwasher, do the laundry, or do all of those things.

    Thanks so much for providing an accurate explanation!

  • hayjude777hayjude777 Tehachapi Ca.Posts: 53Member
    edited December 2017
    What if your showing 0 across the board for a OHMs hour that you participated in but showa only 0 for forecast 0 for useage, I don't think these were ever calculated and were skipped. But I've asked several times about it, without any reply. I remember and exspected them to look into it and add my points and streak bonuses but they never have, it would be a bit of change in my pocket if they account for all the back streak bonuses that haven't been added to every OHMs hour since, Is there someone that would or could tally up my history I'm not to good with math as it is , but even worse when I don't have numbers to work with ?! I can't seem to load a picture but I could email or message a picture if there's someone out there willing to take a look and explain to me what's up. Thanks
  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    @Ronica Hesbon

    What do you mean you are showing 0 across the board? It sounds like you are saying you scored zero and when you click on the button to show the detail it also shows zero for every day making up the forecast? Is that correct?

  • hayjude777hayjude777 Tehachapi Ca.Posts: 53Member
    I'm on my phone and can't seem to post a pic from it of my point history I've tried capture copy and paste nothing it wants a file or drag and drop to post a picture, but I can send or message one , I just can't put it on here, unless I'm doing something wrong, but if you have a email or message app I could send it to you so you could see what I'm talking about. UkiwiS
  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    @Ronica Hesbon

    I'll send you a private message.

    If you've got Windows 10, the snipping tool is great for pics. You can simple copy and paste directly into the message...it looks like this just before posting..

  • CraigWCraigW Posts: 48Member
    edited December 2017

    @UkiwiS said:

    Here you go...BOOM!

    Nicely done. Apologies for snooping, but have you rearranged your usage and ohm-hour windows to align? I had another ohm-hour yesterday from 4-5PM and my forecasted use was a giant 0.65kwh. Even with a 22 streak and Platinum status, I reduced to 0.45 (30% reduction) and earned a staggering 55 points. Really, pretty much pointless and might as well quit the program if my reduction base rate is going to be 70 points per Kwh and even with a high streak and platinum I'll earn around 100-150 points.

    I had an ohm hour on Nov 2 also from 8-9pm and my forecast was 1.2Kwh you're triple that, so just curious if there's behavior driven or environmental (i.e. you run your dishwasher, laundry, dryer all from say 7-9 PM and restricted your ohm-window to the same) or just environmental (you live inland an just turned off the AC on a 100 degree day)

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    @CraigW said:

    @UkiwiS said:

    Here you go...BOOM!

    Nicely done. Apologies for snooping, but have you rearranged your usage and ohm-hour windows to align? I had another ohm-hour yesterday from 4-5PM and my forecasted use was a giant 0.65kwh. Even with a 22 streak and Platinum status, I reduced to 0.45 (30% reduction) and earned a staggering 55 points. Really, pretty much pointless and might as well quit the program if my reduction base rate is going to be 70 points per Kwh and even with a high streak and platinum I'll earn around 100-150 points.

    I had an ohm hour on Nov 2 also from 8-9pm and my forecast was 1.2Kwh you're triple that, so just curious if there's behavior driven or environmental (i.e. you run your dishwasher, laundry, dryer all from say 7-9 PM and restricted your ohm-window to the same) or just environmental (you live inland an just turned off the AC on a 100 degree day)

    I agree, 55 points is not a lot. But you just gained 5% on your streak bonus and it's climbing. The payout rates seem to be seasonal and at a low right now but in June/July/Aug next year you'll be looking sweet!

    I do restrict my availability but mainly because I have Solar. I'm only available after 4pm.

    My usage is high because I have an EV which I charge in the early evening. I have an #OhmHour tonight from 6-7 and my forecast will be in excess of 8 kWh.Of course I will not be plugging the car in tonight! I don't know what the points per kWh will be but I expect to earn between 3500 and 8000 points tonight. The downside of this strategy is that I use a lot of electricity at the higher rate when I could charge at lower rates after midnight. (Not such a big deal during the "winter" season but in "Summer" the rates are WAY different)

  • CraigWCraigW Posts: 48Member

    Nicely done, so behavior driven, you've maxed the impact. Also good to know my plan of getting the EV for the carpool sticker and then restricting my ohm-hour window to when the car is plugged in will pay out nicely. I too have solar.

  • The Little Ohmer TwinsThe Little Ohmer Twins Union CityPosts: 1,014Moderator
    edited December 2017
    @CraigW @UkiwiS is your guy if you want to learn how to maximize your participation and the points you earn with OhmConnect as a solar user and EV owner. He’s got it down and is very knowledgeable about electric rates, so he can also help you change your energy usage behavior to align with your availability to participate and when OH’s are called.

    @UkiwiS what’s your streak at now? And I’m much snoopier than CraigW - any chance you can share how much you’ve made through OhmConnect? Even though I ask, don’t feel obligated to answer.

    In terms of my individual performance through OC, it’s been a little dismal in terms of points earned from OhmHour energy savings, but I’m part of a team that has raised over $3,200 for charity. (I wouldn’t be surprised if @UkiwiS has made more than that as an individual.)

    Part of the reason for low individual point earnings is that I’m a low energy user and don’t have as much energy to save as those who use AC and have EVs. So for people like me, streaks and status level bonuses really help. Also, my focus and strategy is also different than others. I’m on a donation team and all of our individual earnings are pooled together and donated to a non-profit called the March of Dimes. So my focus has been on building the team and getting everyone else to save. So more of my point earnings have come from referral bonuses.
  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,600Member, Moderator

    @CraigW @AKPsi Vince

    I'm with SDG&E so not so knowledgeable about PG&E.

    My streak is currently @ 69 (including 2 that need to be scored). So far in 2017 I've earned 188630 points in total from OhmHours only. I know there are few sly ones out, with a similar strategy and with higher earnings. (I was in the Solar Savers group and only rarely was I the top saver). I don't think those people are active on the forum and they seem to prefer to fly under the radar. :)

  • SFPowerSaverSFPowerSaver SFPosts: 43Member
    edited December 2017

    @UkiwiS said:
    (I was in the Solar Savers group and only rarely was I the top saver). I don't think those people are active on the forum and they seem to prefer to fly under the radar. :)

    lol
    They have nothing to fear, people like you actually help OhmConnect!!!
    I think in general it helps all of us because the more OhmConnect can "save", the more likely they can get bids in and make this sustainable long term.

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