Examples: Monday, today, last week, Mar 26, 3/26/04

Can You Trust Your Forecast?

John KJohn K Lake Forest - Hikers and Bikers TeamPosts: 585Member

If you have an upcoming OhmHour on the horizon with all data available for your forecast, do yourself a favor and add up the usage for the shown events. I know that for some (all?) of us, the calculation is wrong.

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Answers

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,616Member, Moderator
    edited July 2018
    I noticed this last week and advised OC. I had an OhmHour on Monday and the data set was complete but the forecast number didn't compute, even though each number making up the forecast was correct.

    When the OhmHour scored the forecast was the correctly calculated number.
  • John KJohn K Lake Forest - Hikers and Bikers TeamPosts: 585Member

    @UkiwiS said:
    When the OhmHour scored the forecast was the correctly calculated number.

    For my last OH, it appears they used an incorrect forecast for the calculation.

  • UkiwiSUkiwiS San DiegoPosts: 1,616Member, Moderator
    @John K

    Are you saying the average of the 10 numbers in the OhmHour detail on your dashboard differs from number that was used when it scored?
  • John KJohn K Lake Forest - Hikers and Bikers TeamPosts: 585Member

    @UkiwiS, same number, calculated incorrectly.

  • jserramcjserramc Posts: 336Member

    My next (tomorrow, Monday July 2) Mega ohm hour forecast is zero. My regular forecast is -0.323.

    Jul 2, 6:00-7:00PM
    MEGA Goal:
    0.0 kWh
    Forecast:
    -0.323 kWh
    Use:
    TBD

    Kind of backwards. I'd get my 500 point bonus without meeting my forecast... I think I read somewhere that megas would not be negative (those of us with solar) so if zero is as low as they can get...

  • John KJohn K Lake Forest - Hikers and Bikers TeamPosts: 585Member

    @jserramc said:
    My regular forecast is -0.323.

    Was this forecast calculated correctly? You are really living dangerously -- if clouds come in at dusk, you could be in trouble.

  • jserramcjserramc Posts: 336Member

    I just ran my last 10 events that OC ran for me as well. You are right, they are off. but by .001 This is my figure:
    -0.324 I could not read some of my figures on their chart since the average line runs right over the number so I took it from my PGE page:
    -.626
    +.18
    -.044
    -.67
    -.203
    +.113
    -.142
    -.61
    -.62
    -.62

    Regardless, if they are using another calculation....

    Yes I worry about the fog (being in SF) but if I cut the power to fridge and tv it seems to get me to (on June 21) -0.695,...

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