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Why did my "forecasted usage" change dramatically?

tylerjohnbtylerjohnb Posts: 2Member
edited February 15 in General Discussion
I noticed the "forecasted" usage during my last two ohmhours have drastically decreased, making it extremely difficult to stay under. Any reason for this?

Comments

  • ljwellmeljwellme Posts: 1Member
    I noticed this also. I am new to this. I've participated in 2 so far. My first forecasted use was something like 1.1kwph I was able to get my usage down to 0.63kwsph. On my second one my forecasted use had dropped down to 0.73. I wasn't sure if it was common because as I said, i haven't been doing this long.
  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    This blog post should give you a better sense how the forecast is determined and why it can change.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/blog.ohmconnect.com/2016/08/17/your-forecast/amp/
  • Same. Plus I like how I had reached a 9 in a row streak which (I guess) adds a 45% bonus to the next one...and my forecast for that next one was 0.17. kidding me? Figures. If I opted out I would start over completely...but there is literally no way to save on that forecast. Bad luck.

  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    @Heather R. Weather for super savers like us, it's hard to save consistently during an OH because we're already using so little. But look at it this way - your low consumption is reflected in the lower monthly bills you get compared to others who are not super savers.

    For a lot of people, making an extra effort to do their part to save energy, reduce green house gases and preserve the environment is a good enough incentive and it doesn't matter to them how much or little money they earn and saving even the littlest amount is a success.

    But if money is a user's ultimate motivation (totally okay), then super users just need to come to the realization and accept the fact that they won't make a lot of money from energy savings during OHs. After all, this isn't a get rich quick program.

    These users should still try to save during OHs, but understand that if they're looking to earn more cash, then they'll be more likely to do so by referring people, especially those who use a lot more energy on a regular basis i.e. people with electric vehicles, use a ton of AC, have fish ponds or pools with pumps, a big entertainment center, old/inefficient lighting and appliances, etc.
  • Leahp32Leahp32 MaderaPosts: 8Member
    > @That Son Of A Bitz said:
    > This blog post should give you a better sense how the forecast is determined and why it can change.
    >
    > https://www.google.com/amp/s/blog.ohmconnect.com/2016/08/17/your-forecast/amp/
  • Leahp32Leahp32 MaderaPosts: 8Member
    Lol
  • Leahp32Leahp32 MaderaPosts: 8Member
    Love this app so much
  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    What do you like most about it?
  • Heather R. WeatherHeather R. Weather Posts: 63Member
    edited February 17

    @That Son Of A Bitz said:
    @Heather R. Weather for super savers like us, it's hard to save consistently during an OH because we're already using so little. But look at it this way - your low consumption is reflected in the lower monthly bills you get compared to others who are not super savers.

    For a lot of people, making an extra effort to do their part to save energy, reduce green house gases and preserve the environment is a good enough incentive and it doesn't matter to them how much or little money they earn and saving even the littlest amount is a success.

    But if money is a user's ultimate motivation (totally okay), then super users just need to come to the realization and accept the fact that they won't make a lot of money from energy savings during OHs. After all, this isn't a get rich quick program.

    These users should still try to save during OHs, but understand that if they're looking to earn more cash, then they'll be more likely to do so by referring people, especially those who use a lot more energy on a regular basis i.e. people with electric vehicles, use a ton of AC, have fish ponds or pools with pumps, a big entertainment center, old/inefficient lighting and appliances, etc.

    True story. My bill ranges from $30-50 typically...I dont have a/c and during the summer I could barely earn anything. Now come winter, I have been using a space heater in the evenings so I am saving a ton during evening Ohmhours! I just find it really ironic that this "Streak" thing starts and happens during a time I am expected to use 0.17kw. HAHA, seriously? like what else can I do other than flip the switch to my main breaker on my house to save during that. And even if I was at ZERO, I would be saving a measly 0.17kw to get my 45% bonus reward.

  • SummerSummer Posts: 113Member
    Mine has too zero points last 4 hrs this is not correct
  • SummerSummer Posts: 113Member
    Zero
  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    @summer & @Heather R. Weather have you looked at the energy data that you can download directly from the account you have online with your utility? That's the 1st place I'd look to see how it compares to what OC is telling you for your forecast and actual use. If you don't know how OC calculates your forecast from your energy data, you can search the forums to learn how. There's also a user who posted a spreadsheet that does the calculations for you. And (s)he states the #s he gets matches the ones OC provides exactly.
  • well this is rather frustrating. Now I am straight up being lied to. Compare my forecast prediction to what was actually used

    email before event:

    finally posted today:

    id like an explanation of this. its half what I was told.

  • Steve ESteve E Posts: 218Member, Moderator

    @Heather R. Weather said:
    well this is rather frustrating. Now I am straight up being lied to. Compare my forecast prediction to what was actually used

    email before event:

    finally posted today:

    id like an explanation of this. its half what I was told.

    @Heather R. Weather

    I had a similar feeling when I had a differential that was large‚ albeit in not as large as yours. I had a discussion with some of the folks from OhmConnect regarding this and that figure is only an estimate and as I recall is based on the last 10 days of data plus a couple of other factors. Quite often they do not have the full 10 days of prior data at the time the email is sent out so it is calculated based on what they currently have. The calculation and factors are no doubt quite complex but I think a better job could be done of updating the users if they get additional data prior to the OhmHour that better reflects that actual forecast. I also think that it may be possible to indicate better that this is only an estimate and is prone to variations (and indicate what an expected variance may be). I think this is something that they are seriously looking into and although I agree it may seem at first an attempt to somehow lower points‚ I have to say that I do not believe this is the case at all and more of a situation where the user interface and communication does not clearly communicate the possible variances nor update if additional data is received.

    I know it can be frustrating from a users point of view and I do believe the communication could be improved significantly‚ however I also realize they have limited resources and are dealing with some factors that are somewhat outside their control (such as timely delivery of data from the utility companies). I think both us as users and OhmConnect are in something of a learning curve regarding this process and should try to work together to try to improve and sustain what is a worthwhile endeavor for the environment. Open communication is the best way to achieve this in my opinion‚ but that's all it is - my opinion

  • Heather R. WeatherHeather R. Weather Posts: 63Member
    edited February 17

    @KarenE thanks for the explanation but as you see the estimate and actuality is NO WHERE nearly each other so whats the point of telling me such an incorrect thing. If my utility is to blame, then they should definitely clearly state it is a very rough estimate and may change up to 1kw during the time. But disclosing that would really raise brows.

  • Steve ESteve E Posts: 218Member, Moderator

    @Heather R. Weather said:
    @KarenE thanks for the explanation but as you see the estimate and actuality is NO WHERE nearly each other so whats the point of telling me such an incorrect thing. If my utility is to blame, then they should definitely clearly state it is a very rough estimate and may change up to 1kw during the time. But disclosing that would really raise brows. what if, it told me it was expected to be one number...then they used something SUPER low and I would have opted out but didnt. Then I get negative points. You bet I would raise hell if that happened, so I really hope it doesnt. That sort of nonsense will make me close my account and be done with all the forever "growing pains."

    I'm not sure when you joined but I have been here since the very beginning and I would have thought they would figure things out after a year. Don't introduce aspects unless they work properly.

    @Heather R. Weather

    Our estimate was off by about .5kwh or something like that and like I said nowhere near as large as yours. I also agree it is disheartening and frustrating to encounter these issues. I did address with them in my discussion that I personally felt there was an issue with perceived transparency and I do believe they took that discussion sincerely and are aware of these issues and are looking to resolve them. The complexity of the system is no doubt a lot greater than we are aware of and they need to be mindful of implementing changes so as to NOT adversely affect things which may lead to a perceived lack of response or even unwillingness to address these issues. From my interaction with them I certainly do not feel this is the case‚ but I do believe they need to be more forthcoming and transparent with some of these issues. I am quite sure in their creation of the algorithm and process for creating the forecasts they did not anticipate variances above a certain threshold and this may well be a very complex issue to address. That being said I do also believe the communication could be improved.

    Again I would like to stress that they did take the time to discuss this and other concerns / issues I had and I do feel they were sincere in their willingness to listen and address issues. Hopefully communication between users and OhmConnect can continue to grow and improve and issues get resolved.

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    Hi all, thanks to @KarenE for explaining.
    We do believe the estimate should only be off by a max of 20%. If your estimate, as sent in the email, is dramatically different, please let us know. I have opened an issue with our engineering team to see what the average quartile difference is across all users, to make sure we're sending out accurate information or the most accurate information we can.

  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    edited February 17
    @Kate from OhmConnect Thanks for looking into this.

    @KarenE Thank you for taking the time and developing thoughtful responses to @Heather R. Weather's concerns.

    @Heather R. Weather again, if you think something is truly fishy, then I highly encourage you to look at your energy usage data yourself and compare. It'll either support your suspicions or not.

    OC is also open to users sending them their data, so they can see if there are any differences compared to the data they get from your utility directly.

    But I still think you're better off comparing your data to the info they provide about your forecast and your actual use.
  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    Because of the tonality of this thread and accusations being made - neither of which are in good spirit and positive intent, I felt the need to post OC's Community [Forum] Guidelines and encourage all users read them.

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  • @Kate from OhmConnect said:
    Hi all, thanks to @KarenE for explaining.
    We do believe the estimate should only be off by a max of 20%. If your estimate, as sent in the email, is dramatically different, please let us know. I have opened an issue with our engineering team to see what the average quartile difference is across all users, to make sure we're sending out accurate information or the most accurate information we can.

    Thanks Kate. Since mine was off by 75% I hope something can be done moving forward. Is this thread enough to let you know of did you need a separate message? I apologize for my negative tone but as someone who got like 5pts every time during the summer since that is my low season (dont have A/C), this is really the only time for me to benefit and that used forecast was highly wrong. My cat nearly died in Oct and I have been putting a space heater for his comfort every day once im home (we are talking from 5pm - past midnight sometimes). Fri from 7-8pm would definitely fall in that use so its frustrating it ended up so off.

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    @Heather R. Weather if you can send forward me the emails you received with your forecast, that will help a long way in adding to the information I can pass to our engineering team.

  • @Kate from OhmConnect im having a hard time figuring things out - is there a direct email so i can forward from my gmail?

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    All emails sent to help@ohmconnect.com will come to me :)

  • stasigrace@gmail.comstasigrace@gmail.com Posts: 3Member
    edited February 21
    My last estimate was off by over half a kw also, and if the estimate had been right I would have finally leveled up to silver (mt estimates are almost never over 1 kw so impossible to save 1 kw!). Am sending evidence to support team. This was Sunday Feb 19 and my only guess is they couldn't be accurate because it was a last minute notification.
  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    Hey All-- Thanks for your reports. I do have our tech team looking into the discrepancies you're seeing. I'll keep you updated as I get more info!

  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    Hi all @stasigrace@gmail.com, @Heather R. Weather, @KarenE, @tylerjohnbonilla@gmail.com etc:

    Thanks to all of your reports, we were able to locate a small bug in the code for Friday events. The estimates in the emails were being inaccurately calculated. This has now been fixed for ALL days, so on your next events, if you receive the email with your forecast, it should be much more inline with your actual forecast.

    REMEMBER That this is still going to be an ESTIMATE since we're alway at least two days behind receiving data from your utility. But, it should give you an idea.

  • tylerjohnbtylerjohnb Posts: 2Member
    edited March 3
    Thanks to all for the research and constructive discussion had here. I was worried an algorithm changed that would make it impossible for my usage to be under. I appreciate everyone looking into this. I'm on my 7th straight ohmhour in a row now!
  • AKPsi VinceAKPsi Vince Union CityPosts: 979Moderator
    Congratulations @tylerjohnbonilla@gmail.com! Lately, I can't seem to get pass a streak of 4
  • Kate from OhmConnectKate from OhmConnect Posts: 951Administrator

    Congrats @tylerjohnbonilla@gmail.com - that's fantastic! How many points did you get for your last #OhmHour?

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